Bitcoin Falls To $100,000: Has The Four-Year Cycle Concluded?

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Bitcoin is attempting to hold onto critical psychological support at $100,000 and the fate of the bull market could be in the balance. 

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Will cryptocurrencies bounce before the month is over, or has the four-year-cycle concluded in Bitcoin and a bear market is beginning?

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Bitcoin Briefly Touches Below $100,000

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BTCUSD is currently trading above $102,000, after briefly touching below $100,000 yesterday. Bitcoin closed the day above the key level, but added nearly 5% to drawdown totals measured from all-time high. The top cryptocurrency by market cap is now roughly 20% off the highs, but has lost more than $25,000 in value in less than five weeks.

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BTCUSD is touching the 50-week Moving Average

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While $100,000 is a significant rounded number and psychological support zone, losing the level is notable after 140 days trading well above it. $100,000 is also roughly where the 50-week Moving Average is, among other technical support levels. Historically, a close below the 50-week MA results in a bear market in Bitcoin.

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Tick-Tock: Has The Four-Year Cycle Clock Expired?

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For the first time in several years, discussion of a bear market in Bitcoin is being taken seriously. That’s because the current bull market has reached the same length of time to reach past cyclical bull market peaks.

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Bitcoin market cycles compared

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In the comparison above, it is evident that the 2015 - 2017 cycle and 2019 - 2021 market cycles were precisely the same length of time: 1064 days. There’s no guarantee that the current cycle will end at the same length of time, but this realization has further dampened crypto investor sentiment. 

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What About Altcoins If Bitcoin Is Bearish?

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Altcoins are more of a wild card than Bitcoin. Bitcoin has several cycles of relatively predictable behavior, while many altcoins are in first or second cycles. Some have never truly seen a bull cycle yet. And most altcoins have vastly underperformed Bitcoin for the entirety of the bull market. However, altcoins tend to do best around the time when Bitcoin is nearing its peak. The lack of an altcoin season doesn’t necessarily mean one must occur, but it does provide hope that this time isn’t different from others. 

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Altcoins (TOTAL3) are starting to turn over

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On a more negative note, the TOTAL3 altcoin market cap index appears to be crossing bearish on the monthly LMACD, suggesting that momentum is turning over for the wider crypto market and not just Bitcoin. Last month’s candlestick also closed as a Hammer (red boxes). While this can be a bullish candlestick pattern at market bottoms, these Hammer candles have popped up just before past bear markets became a lot more obvious.

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Bear Market Just Starting, Or Already Almost Over?

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Gold is down from its local highs and many are calling tops on the once soaring precious metal. Previous correlations hinted that Bitcoin might begin to overperform once Gold cooled off, but instead BTCUSD is weakening further. But this might not be such a bad thing.

Bitcoin/Gold ratio hints at capitulation in crypto

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According to past market cycles, Bitcoin sees an over 40% capitulation candle when the monthly RSI falls below 50 on the Bitcoin/Gold ratio. This ratio is dropping below 50 now, pointing to possible capitulation in Bitcoin during the month of November. One interesting observation, however, is the fact that these capitulation candles typically occur at the conclusion of a bear market, not the beginning. Could this indicate that Bitcoin’s bear market might already be nearing an end?

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What Could Cause Capitulation Across Crypto?

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A large capitulation candle is possible in Bitcoin and the rest of crypto. But there’s also the ingredients for an explosive move to the upside. The recent volatility isn’t surprising considering that the weekly Bollinger Bands on BTCUSD reached the tightest level in its entire history.

An explosive move is coming, regardless of direction

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Volatility is cyclical in nature, and after record-breaking narrowing of the Bollinger Bands, it is time for them to once again expand. This releases enough energy for a trending move to take place. But there's often ample chop to start off the move, referred to by the tool’s creator as a “head fake.” A close below the lower Bollinger Band on strong volume would be a sell signal, while closing inside the Bollinger Bands could instead suggest a move to the upside is coming. Watch this signal closely over the coming days as it could be a trend-defining move when it arrives.

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Conclusion

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Bitcoin’s return to the $100,000 level marks a critical crossroads for the current market cycle. The combination of waning momentum, cyclical timing symmetry, and tightening volatility suggests a major move is imminent — but not necessarily in the direction most expect.

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Historically, the end of one phase in Bitcoin’s four-year rhythm has often coincided with the beginning of the next. Whether this is the start of a deeper correction or the final shakeout before a renewed push to new highs, the coming weeks will be pivotal.

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For now, traders should prepare for heightened volatility and remain alert to confirmation signals from the Bollinger Bands and long-term Moving Averages. The next decisive move could determine whether this cycle has truly peaked — or if Bitcoin is gearing up to surprise the market once again. 

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